Thursday, October 30, 2008

US Recesion

Let’s have a closer look of the U.S. economy, with fuel prices topping four dollars per gallon in some states; many citizens want to keep their paychecks in their pockets and out of their gas tanks. Right now, what’s there big concern; it’s all about their economy’s recession.

In the past couple of months, even economists have shifted their dispute from whether a recession will occur to how long and devastating the recession will be. Whether the U.S. quickly bounces back, suffers a long period of economic weakness or falls somewhere in between will have a significant effect on the global economy. The Federal Reserve says the most likely scenario is that the U.S. recession will be short and the economy will quickly bounce back, although threats do still exist.

A recession is officially defined as two quarters of negative GDP growth, which certainly have not had yet, since 2007 Q4 (0.6%) was positive (not done with 2008 Q2). Having said that, 2008 Q1 was probably very near zero, and Q2 is not exactly starting off with a bang. But I think John is technically correct (
Recession Is Still a Possibility, Not a Reality: John M. Berry). American standard of living is declining and will continue to decline, but that is not what the official definition cares about (maybe they need to come up with another word for it).

In a real scenario, people are paying more for food, gas, housing, and some are even losing their homes (sub-prime woe). In parallel, the unemployment rate is also increasing. The terms "crisis," "devastated," "weakness," & "distress" be certain to consider that the word "recession" applies.
Source: Federal reserve & Bloomberg

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